Market Polls

Market poll results from Nov16 on

  • I conduct 2 market polls every year with traders and roasters from around the world
  • Participation has ranged from 20 to 50 people
  • Polls have been fairly accurate in predicting the direction of the market and often within 5 to 10 cents of actual results
  • Below results show the results of the polls and then updated to show actually what happened where known with certainty.

Current (Jan22-Jun22)

  • Market at time of poll:  233 (roughly)
  • I asked participants:
    • What will high and low be for both the NY C market (ICE Coffee) and the Brazilian Real
    • What they expect for Brazils 22/23 crop and 23/24 crop
    • Where do the expect ICE warehouse stocks to be by Jun22.
  • Take home:
    • Participants fairly unanimous that market will trade in a 211 to 279 range
    • Brazil 22/23 crop should come in around 62/63 mm bags
    • Brazil 23/34 crop might be in the 68 mm bag range
    • ICE certified stocks going below 1,000,000 bags
  • Actual results:  (pending Jun22)

Aug21-Dec21

  • Market at time: 175
  • I asked participants:
    • Expectation for High and Low for both NY C Market (ICE Coffee) and Brazilian Real
    • How many years of yearly supply/demand deficit they expected.
    • How they expected the deficit(s) to be solved.
  • Below poll restuls w/actual market results (blue)
  • Take homes:
    • Participants accurately predicted the direction the market would head, but not the degree.
    • With expectations of deficits for both 21/22 and 22/23 crops its not suprising what their view were and what the market actually did.
  • Actual Results:  Participants were right as the market rallied substantially.

Jan21-Jun21

  • Market at time:  122
  • I asked participants:
    • Expectation for High and Low for both NY C Market (ICE Coffee) and Brazilian Real
    • How had consumption been affected by Covid19.
    • Whether or not the lack of rain in Brazil was already priced in the market
  • Take homes:
    • Participants were bullish.
    • Consumption would initially be down due to covid, but would then recuperate to historical levels and above.
    • Mixed views on whether the lack of rain in Brazil was iun the market.
  • Actual Results: Participants were right as the market rallied substantially.

Nov16-Dec17

  • Market at the time:  155
  • I asked participants:
    • What do the think the high and low of the NY C Market (ICE Coffee) will be?
    • Where do the expect the Brazil and Vietnam crops to be for 16/17 crop cycle?
  • Take homes:
    • Expected Average Market High: 180
      • Actual result: 175
    • Expected Average Market Low 145
      • Actual result:  115
    • Expected Brazil Crop:  51
      • Actual 56.50
    • Expected Vietnam Crop; 26.6
      • Actual: 26.1
  • Actual Results:  Participants were right on market high, but missed how far the market would fall.